Front: a mining and agricultural federation of forty co-operatives
FILE SECTIONS
FILE HEALTH
Claims held
26
Corroborated
9
Uncorroborated
12
In conflict
3
Contested
2
Median age
4 turns
Oldest relied on
31 turns
A file is not a stat block. It is a pile of paper of varying age
from people of varying reliability, and the interface will not
average it into a number for you.
01Standing assessmentyour analysts, turn 143. This is opinion.
verify via second source
The Consortium is assessed, at moderate confidence, to be
expanding ordnance holdings in the southern depots. That assessment rests on one
uncorroborated field report and is directly contradicted by signals collection
and by the Consortium's own declaration.
Analysts differ. The Military desk reads the discrepancy as
concealment. The Economy desk reads it as a bookkeeping artefact of the co-operative
structure, in which forty entities file separately and nobody consolidates.
Neither desk has an independent source and both are aware of it.
This section is the only place in the file where staff you employ tell you what they
think. Everything below it is claims with names attached. The two are kept apart on
purpose, because an opinion that gets filed next to evidence eventually becomes evidence.
02Territoryintel level 4 of 5 · the map is public, the rest is not
ClaimSourceFiledAgeState
31 provincesPUBLIC / the mapt143liveFACT
2 straits heldPUBLIC / the mapt143liveFACT
Loyalty 71 to 84HUMINT / co-op registryt1394t2 SOURCES
Loyalty 40 to 60OSINT / regional presst1412tUNCORROBORATED
The two Loyalty claims overlap at the edges and disagree in the middle.
The file keeps both. Collapsing them into "Loyalty: 62" would be the single most
damaging thing this interface could do, because 62 is a number nobody ever said.
03Economyintel level 3 of 5
where does the lithium go?
Capital, ~340/turnANALYSIS / modelledt1421tNOT A SOURCE
Lithium, 4 unitsCOPY THE LEDGER / t138t1385tSNAPSHOT
Debt to the HanseHUMINT / SPARROWt13112tUNCORROBORATED
Upkeep at 94%ANALYSIS / modelledt1421tNOT A SOURCE
Reserve positionINFERRED, not observedt1421tOPINION
A COPY THE LEDGER snapshot is a fact about turn 138 and nothing
more. It does not update. It ages. Five turns on it is a photograph
of a room somebody has since left.
04Militaryintel level 2 of 5 · the thin section, and the loud one
cross-check signals
Ordnance, Pretoria depot complex
ValueSourceFiledAgeState
340FIELD AGENT / PLOVERt14331hUNCORROBORATED
190SIGINT / Sinest1385tUNCORROBORATED
~200ANALYSIS / your stafft1412tMODELLED
190DECLARED / the Consortiumt1403tSELF-REPORTED
PLOVER and Sines disagree by a factor of 1.8. PLOVER has been correct 2 of 3 times.
Sines has been correct 7 of 8. The file does not pick a winner, does not weight them into
an average, and does not put a confidence percentage on the pair, because there is no
honest arithmetic that turns two disagreeing sources into one trustworthy number.
Recommend a third source before acting. TASK CORROBORATION or
PROVENANCE ANALYSIS, 1 Operations point, 8h dispatch lag,
executes tonight.
A 14 turn Deterrent build is a two week public declaration of intent to anyone watching
closely. Nobody here has been watching closely. That row says
NEVER COLLECTED, and it would say NEVER COLLECTED whether they were building one or not.
Pretoria will not be boughtEVERY SOURCE, ALWAYSt06182t3 SOURCES
Two fields on this page are redacted by your own service, not by the game.
Compartmentalisation is a policy your Directorates set, it protects a source whose
identity would be inferable from the claim, and it is one of the very few places where
something is genuinely being withheld from you and says so plainly.
06Networksyours are facts. Theirs are not.
ISTHMUS, Depth 3YOURS / rostert143liveFACT
Assets: 4 namedYOURS / rostert143liveFACT
Exposure est. 30 to 55ASSESS / your analystst1412tESTIMATE
Their networks in youSEE YOUR OWN PENETRATION OVERLAY--ESTIMATE ONLY
Their Intel Level on you is climbing. Territory 2 to 4 over the last twenty turns,
Military 1 to 3. That is the clearest possible warning that somebody is preparing
something, it is visible to you with a confidence band, and there is nothing you can do
about it except find the network.
07Source reliabilitythe grade is a track record, not a verdict
Source reliability
ACompletely reliable
BUsually reliable
CFairly reliable
DNot usually reliable
A grade D source is not a liar and a grade A source is not an oracle.
The grade says how often this source has been right before, and
nothing whatsoever about whether they are right now. The most expensive mistakes
in this game are made on grade A material.
Exporting shares the claims and their sources. A file handed to an ally is a file handed
to whoever they are handing files to.
YOUR INTEL ON THEM 0 TO 5
Territory 4
+1 per 8 to 14 turns. Decays at 1 per 100+.
Economy 3
Last raised turn 138.
Military 2
The thin one. It is also the one you are about to act on.
Politics 2
Last raised turn 129.
Networks 3
Depth 3 in the Isthmus network.
THEIR INTEL ON YOU ESTIMATED
Territory ~4
was 2 on turn 123. Band 3 to 5, moderate confidence.
Military ~3
was 1 on turn 123. Band 2 to 4, low confidence.
Economy ~1
Band 0 to 2. Possibly higher. Possibly zero.
Estimated by your counterintelligence, not measured. Losing a network does not blind you.
It freezes your picture and lets it go stale, and you can see the timestamps.
DECAY WATCH
2 claims in this file are CONTESTED. Neither has been supported by anything for
seven turns. Contested does not mean false. It means the picture no longer coheres,
and you now know something is wrong without knowing what.
CLAIMS, NOT STATS. NOTHING ON THIS PAGE IS A FACT ABOUT THEM UNLESS IT SAYS FACT.