BLACK CHAMBER / M3 / PROVENANCE RESOLVED

Counter-intelligence / provenance file 143-R2

PROVENANCE RESOLVED

The Sines manifest, received turn 143 via SOURCE PLOVER, was a fabrication.

FORGED

RESOLVED TURN 151, 00:00 UTC

BELIEVED FOR 8 TURNS

This screen exists because the game does not get to lie to you and walk away. Every fabrication that lands is eventually traced in full, and the trace includes what you did about it. Nothing below is withheld and nothing below is softened.

01What you were told reproduced exactly as it reached your desk

FIELD AGENT C TURN 143, 02:50 UTC · 31h old on arrival UNCORROBORATED

Ordnance stockpile at the Pretoria depot complex given as 340

PLOVER reports, at his own stated high confidence, a Consortium ordnance stockpile of 340 at the Pretoria depot complex. The document he photographed is a shipping manifest on an Aden commercial letterhead. Analysis notes that the Consortium's declared figure is 190, that Signals reads the same depot at 190, and that 340 and 190 cannot both be true.

Every word of that was shown to you at the time. The grade was C. The corroboration state was UNCORROBORATED. The interface told you your two sources disagreed by a factor of 1.8 and recommended a third before acting. None of it was hidden and none of it was wrong.

02What it actually was author, date, route, intent

Authored by: THE HANSE / Depth 4 network, Journalistic cover
Authored at: Turn 140, 14 Leverage, operation FABRICATE
True value: 190. The Consortium's declared figure was correct.
Artefact: Shipping manifest, Aden commercial letterhead, genuine stock and genuine seal
Channel: Placed for discovery. Not fed to you. Left where somebody would find it.
Laundered via: An Aden commercial syndicate, paid 6 Leverage and told nothing
Intended effect: A Pretext filing by the Northern Compact against the Consortium of the South

Why it survived eight turns

+The value sat within 2x of the true figure. A wild lie is cheap and dies in four turns.+24

+The artefact type matched the claim. Ordnance moves on manifests.+18

+Sines had genuine traffic that supported the shape of it.+15

+It was placed, not delivered. Discovery feels like your own work, and your own work is trusted.+22

−The Consortium's declared Ordnance is public and contradicted it.−8

PLAUSIBILITY AT AUTHORING71%

A careful, nearly true lie is far more dangerous than a large one, and it costs the same Leverage to author. That gradient is the entire skill of the system, and the Hanse played it correctly.

03Your source the part people get wrong

PLOVER

Motive COMPROMISE. Recruited turn 44. Placed in the Isthmus network at Depth 3. Correct in two of his last three reports before this one, and correct in this one too.

Assessment

PLOVER was not turned. PLOVER was not bought. PLOVER was correctly reporting a document that had been placed for him to find.

He stays. There is nothing to purge and nobody to arrest. His reliability grade is unchanged at C, because his reporting was accurate: the manifest said what he said it said. The failure was one level up, in what you did with an uncorroborated claim from a grade C source.

04What you did about it every order attributable to this claim, from your own command log

Turn 143, 09:52

Read the claim. Did not task corroboration.

The interface offered PROVENANCE ANALYSIS at 1 Operations point and 12 Leverage, with an 8h dispatch lag, which would have executed that night. You had 2 Operations points unspent.

COMMAND LOG 143-0952 / NO ORDER ISSUED

Turn 143, 10:14

Moved 3 Formations to the Levant Theatre

3 Mandate. 16h dispatch lag, matured 02:14, resolved turn 144. Readiness fell 22 points in transit.

COMMAND LOG 143-1014

Turn 144, 08:30

Cancelled Grid hardening at PRV-018 to pay for the movement

A four turn build, abandoned on turn two. PRV-018 is the province whose grain manifests were altered on turn 143 by a party still unattributed.

COMMAND LOG 144-0830

Turn 145, 09:05

Filed a Pretext against the Consortium of the South

Evidence submitted: the Sines manifest. 2 Mandate, 20 Leverage. A Pretext filed is a Pretext spent, whatever the outcome.

COMMAND LOG 145-0905 / CONCERT SUBMISSION 145-C

Turn 147

Lost the Pretext vote, 14 to 7

The Consortium ran PROVENANCE ANALYSIS on your submitted evidence, in public, on the floor. It returned 31% confidence of authenticity. The Chairwoman read the figure aloud twice and then asked whether the Federal Republic wished to withdraw.

CONCERT RECORD 147 / MARGINALIA REFERENCED

Turn 148

Mother Pretoria closed the strait tariff concession

Not a mechanic firing. A person deciding. The Consortium had been courtable for thirty turns and is not courtable now.

DIPLOMATIC RECORD 148

Turn 149

Legitimacy fell below the Concert office threshold

Your Signature is THE CLEAN HANDS. Highest Legitimacy generation in the game, and it is the only thing you have instead of an army.

STANDING RECALCULATED

Turn 151, 00:00

Provenance resolved

Your own PROVENANCE ANALYSIS, finally run on turn 150 against the Concert submission record, traced the letterhead stock to a Hanse procurement in turn 139. The claim had already been auto-flagged CONTESTED on turn 150 under the decay rule, which told you something was wrong and did not tell you what.

1 OPS, 12 LEVERAGE, EIGHT TURNS LATE

05What it cost measured, not estimated. These are your own books.

Leverage

Pretext filing and movement

Legitimacy

Below the office threshold

Mandate spent

Over two turns

Formations displaced

8 turns out of position

Builds abandoned

Grid hardening, PRV-018

Pretext

Spent and lost.
Not recoverable.

The Consortium

Courtable for 30 turns.
Not courtable now.

The Hanse

Paid 20 Leverage.
Fired no shot.

06The moment it turned turn 143, 09:52

What being careful would have cost

Operation	PROVENANCE ANALYSIS
Action points	1 OPERATIONS (you held 2, unspent)
Leverage	12 (you held 74)
Dispatch lag	8h (submitted 09:52, would have matured 17:52, executed that night)
Would have returned	31% confidence of authenticity, on turn 144
What you spent it on	Nothing. Both Operations points expired unspent at LOCK.

Being careful cost one Operations point and one day. You did not pay it, and you were not tricked into not paying it: the recommendation was on the screen, above the fold, in the same panel as the claim. The game did not lie to you. A source lied to you, and you had every instrument required to catch it, and you did not use one.

07What you now hold the file closes as an asset, not a wound

Strong Hook · The Hanse

A genuine, verified, damaging secret: that the Hanse authored and laundered forged evidence submitted to a Concert Tribunal. Guarantees compliance once, then is spent.

Burning it costs the Hanse a large Legitimacy hit and names you as the source, unless you launder the publication, which costs more and is usually worth it.

What this does not tell you

Whether the Hanse has done this before. Whether the Aden syndicate knew what it was carrying. Whether anything else in your Consortium file came from the same author. Attribution named the Hanse because the Hanse authored it. It would have named the Aden syndicate just as confidently if the Hanse had routed one more hop.

Post-mortems arrive whether or not you ask for one, and they arrive complete. That is the third disclosure guarantee, and it is the reason a fabrication can be allowed to work at all.

THE GAME NEVER LIES. SOURCES DO.

DISCLOSURE GUARANTEE 3 OF 3: THE POST-MORTEM ALWAYS ARRIVES

MOCKUP / STATIC / NOT PRODUCT CODE